Unexpected box office successes in 2025 reveal a major shift in audience behavior, surprising many industry experts.
Comscore's Paul Dergarabedian explains that cultural urgency is now manufactured by the event itself, not dictated by the calendar.
He advises marketers to abandon seasonal templates and treat each campaign as a strategic chess game, actively creating moments to cut through the noise.
This new playbook, exemplified by Taylor Swift's strategic releases and the horror genre's record year, rewards brands that leverage emerging fandoms and social media trends.
For decades, the advertising world has run on a seasonal clock. But a look at the film industry can help advertisers reorient expectations. The summer of 2025, meant to be a tentpole season, ended on a quiet note after a string of high-profile disappointments, like Fantastic Four, which dropped 66% in its second weekend. But then September exploded. A month traditionally seen as a box office dead zone delivered unexpectedly strong results. The Conjuring: Last Rites kicked off the month with an $84 million opening, and the anime film Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle followed with a $71 million debut, contributing to a surprisingly strong month. The market's volatility shows advertisers that cultural urgency isn't dictated by the calendar, but is manufactured around an event.
We spoke with Paul Dergarabedian, Senior Media Analyst at Comscore, Inc. and previously the founder of the box-office tracking firm Media by Numbers, LLC. Dergarabedian explains that the industry's recent volatility isn't chaos, but a sign of how audience engagement is changing.
Flipping the script: He says it's time to reframe the entire marketing calendar, using movies as an analogy. "People think the month or the season defines the movies and what they're capable of doing at the box office, but it's actually the other way around. The movies define the season." For advertisers, this means considering how their campaigns can define the season rather than being defined by it.
Individuality matters: The argument is that because movies are unique cultural experiences, they benefit from a bespoke strategy that can’t be confined to a seasonal template. "It's not widgets. We're not putting out the same toaster every week in a different color. With movies, it's a completely new experience and deliverable for audiences, and each has to be treated individually." For marketers, this underscores the need to move away from generic, mass-market approaches and instead craft unique, experience-driven messages that resonate year-round.
An off-season MVP: This mindset transforms the calendar from a set of rules into a strategic chess game. Agile brands can win by creating their own moments in open spaces on the calendar, moving beyond the traditional need to compete only during prime time. "The industry looks at certain seasons as being the big, booming times. But when you think outside the box and put what's traditionally considered a summer movie in the fall, it can work. The first Guardians of the Galaxy was released in August because they didn't know what they had." This presents a strategic opportunity for advertisers to identify and capitalize on untapped moments, transforming traditionally 'off-peak' times into high-impact opportunities for their brands.
Taylor Swift’s recent album and film release is another clear example of this strategy in action. By launching both outside the crowded summer corridor, she manufactured her own cultural moment, dominating the conversation precisely because there was less noise to compete with. "Taylor Swift picked the right time to release her album and film. Announcing it in September allowed her to rise above the noise of the mid-summer box office race. It was a very strategic move, using Swift-onomics to get the biggest bang for the box office buck and get people aware of her cultural imprint." This serves as a powerful case study for advertisers on how to create a self-generated cultural event that captures maximum attention, even in a non-traditional window.
The box office success of films like Demon Slayer and Five Nights at Freddy's came as a surprise to many in the industry, yet predictive data on streaming growth and the globalization of fandoms were clear signals of their impending success. This highlights a critical lesson for brands aiming to connect with diverse consumer bases.
A lesson in humility: Dergarabedian calls for a "holistic view," admitting that even experts can miss what’s happening if they aren’t paying attention to the right conversations. "I've been doing this every day for thirty-two years, and things still get past me. I have to admit, I didn't see the almost $71 million domestic opening for Demon Slayer coming." This serves as a crucial reminder for advertisers to challenge their own biases and expand their understanding of emerging cultural trends beyond traditional demographics.
The new playbook: "The lesson is don't discount anything, don't ignore anything. Try to live in the shoes of audiences with different backgrounds and points of view. Once you do that, you can key off of what's happening on social media to really understand the marketplace." For marketers, this means actively engaging in social listening, immersing themselves in diverse online communities, and being open to insights from unexpected corners to truly grasp the evolving marketplace.
The sustained success of the horror genre in 2025 offers another powerful blueprint for advertisers on how to build consistent, year-round engagement through a series of well-timed, impactful campaigns, rather than relying on a single seasonal push. It shows that the calendar doesn't always call the shots.
A billion-dollar scare: "Horror movies have now just surpassed $1.17 billion domestically for the year," Dergarabedian says, citing Comscore data. "We just surpassed the record set in 2017 when IT, Get Out, and Split drove the box office up to $1.16 billion. With more horror movies still in the mix, we're having a record-breaking year for the genre." This demonstrates that a strong, consistent narrative and targeted events can drive significant and sustained market success for brands, irrespective of traditional seasonal cycles. A film like Sinners could even get nominated for Best Picture, a milestone that would cement its growing prestige.
The same thinking applies to brands. Those focused on creating their own cultural moments are seen as "innovators" guiding the industry. Take American Eagle, for example, leveraging strategic partnerships with figures like Sydney Sweeney and Travis Kelce to generate buzz and acquire new customers without relying on a seasonal hook. "An innovator can fail spectacularly, but they can also provide a north star for others. You can have a hit in any given month as long as you market it well, capture the zeitgeist, and have a solid story," Dergarabedian says. This approach empowers brands to become market leaders by actively shaping their own narratives and creating impactful moments that resonate with consumers year-round, rather than passively following a calendar.
